Superforecasting

Superforecasting does require minimum levels of intelligence, numeracy, and knowledge of the world, but anyone who reads serious books about psychological research probably has those prerequisites. So what is it that elevates ...

Superforecasting

Superforecasting

The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. _________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times

More Books:

Superforecasting
Language: en
Pages: 352
Authors: Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Categories: Social Science
Type: BOOK - Published: 2015-09-24 - Publisher: Random House

The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house
Probability, Choice, and Reason
Language: en
Pages: 310
Authors: Leighton Vaughan Williams
Categories: Mathematics
Type: BOOK - Published: 2021-09-15 - Publisher: CRC Press

Much of our thinking is flawed because it is based on faulty intuition. By using the framework and tools of probability and statistics, we can overcome this to provide solutions to many real-world problems and paradoxes. We show how to do this, and find answers that are frequently very contrary
The Open Society and Its Complexities
Language: en
Pages: 288
Authors: Gerald Gaus
Categories: Philosophy
Type: BOOK - Published: 2021-08-06 - Publisher: Oxford University Press

A mere two decades ago it was widely assumed that liberal democracy and the Open Society it created had decisively won their century-long struggle against authoritarianism. Although subsequent events have shocked many, F.A. Hayek would not have been surprised that we are in many ways disoriented by the society we
Law, War and the Penumbra of Uncertainty
Language: en
Pages: 256
Authors: Sam Selvadurai
Categories: Law
Type: BOOK - Published: 2022-04-07 - Publisher: Cambridge University Press

An exploration into how uncertainty and political and ethical biases affect international law governing the use of force.
Bulletproof Problem Solving
Language: en
Pages: 320
Authors: Charles Conn, Robert McLean
Categories: Business & Economics
Type: BOOK - Published: 2019-03-04 - Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Complex problem solving is the core skill for 21st Century Teams Complex problem solving is at the very top of the list of essential skills for career progression in the modern world. But how problem solving is taught in our schools, universities, businesses and organizations comes up short. In Bulletproof