Superforecasting

These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters.

Superforecasting

Superforecasting

The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project โ€“ an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions โ€“ has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit โ€“ whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. _________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times

More Books:

Superforecasting
Language: en
Pages: 352
Authors: Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Categories: Social Science
Type: BOOK - Published: 2015-09-24 - Publisher: Random House

The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house
SUMMARY - Superforecasting: The Art And Science Of Prediction By Philip E. Tetlock And Dan Gardner
Language: en
Pages: 35
Authors: Shortcut Edition
Categories: Business & Economics
Type: BOOK - Published: 2021-06-05 - Publisher: Shortcut Edition

* Our summary is short, simple and pragmatic. It allows you to have the essential ideas of a big book in less than 30 minutes. By reading this summary, you will discover the art of making reliable and rigorous forecasts. You will also discover that : many experts give forecasts
A Joosr Guide to ... Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner
Language: en
Pages: 18
Authors: Joosr
Categories: Business & Economics
Type: BOOK - Published: 2016 - Publisher:

Books about A Joosr Guide to ... Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner
Superforecasting
Language: en
Pages: 37
Authors: Instaread
Categories: Business & Economics
Type: BOOK - Published: 2015-12-14 - Publisher: Instaread

Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of
Tetlock and Gardner's Superforecasting Summary
Language: en
Pages: 28
Authors: Ant Hive Media
Categories: Business & Economics
Type: BOOK - Published: 2016-04-23 - Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform

This is a Summary of Tetlock and Gardner's New York Times Bestseller: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters.

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